Covid-19 has sucked up the political capacity of virtually every European nation, leaving every other area of policy playing second fiddle as the world tries to fight this invisible threat.
This has created a uniquely difficult problem for Boris Johnson, the UK Prime Minister, who faces the harrowing prospect of two unprecedented crises taking hold simultaneously before the end of 2020.
Brexit might not be at the top of anyone's in-tray at the moment, but the clock is ticking on the UK's current transition period with the European Union (EU), which allows the UK to operate as though it is more-or-less still a member state while both sides negotiate their future relationship. This expires on December 31.
It's been well documented that the pandemic has made these negotiations more difficult, as representatives have been unable to meet in person. The talks, while still happening, are stuck in deadlock, meaning the default of no-deal Brexit remains the logical conclusion of this saga, now in its fifth year.
Both sides remain committed to striking a deal, but both sides have red lines that are incompatible with each other. The EU insists that if the UK wants tariff-free access to the EU's enormous internal market, then it must make commitments to obey certain EU laws. The UK says the EU is making unreasonable demands and not respecting its sovereignty.
It has previously been suggested by some Brexit hardliners that the only way to make Brussels budge is to show that Britain is not only willing to walk away, but will thrive should it do so. Arguably, a version of this strategy previously had some degree of impact when talks were locked in earlier negotiations --- most notably when Johnson managed to renegotiate the initial Brexit deal that he had inherited from his predecessor, Theresa May.
However, things are different now. Back then, the UK was still a member state leaving the bloc; now, it's a third country, and the EU has moved on to the various bigger fish it needs to fry. These include passing its seven-year budget (the Multiannual Financial Framework or MFF) and coronavirus recovery package last week, with an attendant four days of bitter rows and negotiations.
"If Brexit is second in our list of priorities, imagine how far down the list it is of EU member states," says Anand Menon, professor of European politics at King's College London. "All this stuff about Brussels better brace itself, compared to the €1.8 trillion [$2.1 trillion] they just signed off, it's small beer."
The pandemic remains a much more pressing emergency for the 27-nation bloc. "We are focused on the recovery of the European Union -- that's the priority," said one EU diplomat who is not authorized to speak on the record. "When you've spent four days with the heads of every EU government arguing over trillions of euros, you start to see why Brexit is just not on our radar anymore. Unfortunately, the Brits are a little too self-involved to see that."
Others in Brussels believe that last w
