There's no question the court battle has already injected more money and partisanship into many of these races, but a little more than week out from Ginsburg's death, there isn't yet enough data to definitively say whether the vacancy — another major national event in a year full of them — will benefit one party or another.
The loss of the liberal justice has been a fundraising bonanza for Democrats, many of whom already had significant financial advantages, with ActBlue processing millions in donations in the week since her death. But it's also stirring conservatives, who are hoping to remind right-leaning voters who may have soured on Trump of the importance of having a GOP-controlled Senate when it comes to the long-term balance of the high court.
The Senate landscape looks different from the last time there was a Supreme Court fight, just before the 2018 midterms. Two years ago, Democrats were on defense, and at least three of their red-state incumbents couldn't overcome a highly partisan confirmation nationalizing their races.
This year, however, Democrats are on offense, defending just 12 seats to Republicans' 23. Two of those Democrat-held seats — Alabama and Michigan — bookend this list of the seats most likely to flip partisan control, which was first published at the end of August. The remaining eight seats on the list are Republican-held. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to win control of the chamber, or three if Joe Biden wins the White House since the vice president breaks ties in the Senate. Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales, a CNN contributor, rates six GOP-held seats either Toss-up or Tilt Democratic.
Interactive: 2020 Senate race ratings
Two of those are blue states that Hillary Clinton won in 2016, which is where Republicans fear a partisan Supreme Court debate could hurt the most. Democrats are already making Republicans' push to confirm a new justice part of their advertising in Colorado -- which maintains its spot at No. 2 -- layering that message on top of their long-running attacks on the GOP on health care. The fate of the Affordable Care Act, a winning issue for Democrats in the 2018 midterms, has once again been thrust to the fore of the election, with the high court scheduled to hear arguments over the law the week after Election Day.
In Maine, another blue state where a Republican incumbent is facing a tough reelection, Democrat Sara Gideon is explicitly arguing that this election isn't just about Sen. Susan Collins — who has said the Senate shouldn't vote on a nominee before Election Day — it's also about Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, whom the narrator in one of her recent spots says, is also on the ballot.
It's possible Maine, which is No. 5 on the list, and North Carolina, which is No. 4, could soon switch places. If the Supreme Court vacancy does push voters deeper into their partisan corners, that could spell good news for North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis, but bad news for Collins, who's already alienated moderates and independents with her support for Justice Br
