Javed Razack
This week’s column aims to summarise the major happenings in the local energy sector for 2024.
TT’s 2025 budget was based on oil at US$85 per barrel (US$92.50 in 2024) and gas at US$5 per mmbtu (US$6 in 2024).
Crude oil plus condensate production averaged just over 50,000 barrels per day for 2024, while gas production was 2.5 bcf/d for the same period.
This continues a downward trend – 2022 was 58,500 and 2.7 bcf/d, and 2023 was 55,000 and 2.6 bcf/d.
There has been significant progress on advancing new gas projects (Cypre, Mento, Coconut and Manatee), but with natural decline of fields, the new production may just keep production flat at best until Manatee comes online in 2027/2028. There has been no final decision on Woodside’s Calypso, the best hope for large new domestic gas. We hope that a decision is made soon, as it will likely take at least seven years to get gas production online.
Dragon saw its first technical survey begin at the end of 2024 but continues to be a big wild card after the US election. Many analysts give it a 50/50 chance at best of going forward at this point.
Dragon, Manakin-Cocuina from bpTT and the potential of accessing Loran all depend on the Trump administration’s stance on Venezuela, particularly from US Secretary of State-elect, Mark Rubio, a harsh critic of the Maduro regime.
Some major assets have changed hands this year. Shell’s Central Block will be sold to Touchstone. Meanwhile, Touchstone’s attempt to buy Trinity was thwarted by Lease Operators Ltd, who was successful in its acquisition. bpTT sold several existing fields and undeveloped areas to Perenco, who will now become a significant gas player.
Several blocks have been signed in 2024, ending a long period of little or no success from bid rounds.
A number of onshore and offshore blocks will see seismic and hopefully drilling within the next few years. Getting blocks signed on a continuous basis is key to keep gas supply flowing.
[caption id="attachment_1128773" align="alignnone" width="1024"] An edited map, originally created by NGC, shows TT’s energy landscape. -[/caption]
Heritage has held oil production steady, but its production is still less than what Petrotrin did back in 2018. With its vast acreage onshore and off the west coast, Heritage still has the best chance to significantly increase crude production (and hence earn more US$) of any company in the near term. We hope this materialises from its drilling campaigns in 2025.
Not a lot has changed on the downstream side. Plants continue to operate at reduced capacity due to insufficient gas.
Methanex switched out Atlas for Titan, reducing its overall production. The Atlantic restructure began to bear fruit for NGC, which shipped its first cargoes from Trains Two and Three in December.
Tobago experienced a major oil spill from a vessel under the most unusual circumstances. The whole saga really highlighted how ill-prepared we are for a truly big spill from hydrocarbon operations.
Meanwhile, our Caricom neighbours, Guyana
