Trinidad and Tobago has a low fertility rate. Health Minister Terrence Deyalsingh has been speaking on the issue in public forums for some months.

This is not unique to TT but mirrors global patterns.

An article originally published in the peer-reviewed general medical journal, The Lancet and reproduced on healthdata.org’s website said by 2050, over three-quarters (155 of 204) of countries will not have high enough fertility rates to sustain population size over time and this would increase to 97 per cent by 2100.

It said in low-income countries with higher fertility rates, better access to contraceptives and female education would help in reducing birth rates, while in low-fertility, high-income settings polices that support parents and open immigration would be vital to maintain population size and economic growth.

It added that national governments needed to begin planning for emerging threats that would come along with demographic changes such as economic, health, environmental and threats to geopolitical security.

Late last year, Deyalsingh began the conversation about TT’s low fertility rate.

In media reports, he said more people were delaying pregnancies and reducing the number of children they have.

At a recent conference to address issues arising after the deaths of seven babies at the Port of Spain General Hospital (PoSGH), Deyalsingh again repeated statements about TT’s low fertility rate saying that TT’s fertility rate was 1.9 as opposed to the needed 2.1 births per woman.

In 2021, the World Bank said the rate stood at 1.6 per woman.

But what does this mean for the country.

Newsday spoke to some experts on the matter.

Gynaecologist Dr Sherene Kalloo provided a definition of the fertility rate, saying it was the number of children, on average; a woman has during her reproductive years (15-44).

[caption id="attachment_1083073" align="alignnone" width="768"] Dr Sherene Kalloo believes TT is facing an under population crisis. "We are heading to a point of no return, ‘the low fertility trap.’"-[/caption]

Dr Kalloo said the rate in TT had been declining over the years and cited industrialisation as a contributing factor.

In WhatsApp responses to Newsday, she said, “The more industrialised and wealthier a country becomes, birth rates start to decline.”

Repeating statistics given by Deyalsingh, Kalloo said TT’s births were now down to less than 13,000 live births per year with a fertility rate of 1.6.

TT is now facing an under population crisis, she said.

Despite past fears of overpopulation, Kalloo said underpopulation was equally as bad.

She said in the short-term there might appear to be economic benefit from this. “In the past, scarcity of houses, jobs, food, demands on health services as well as a poor economy put a strain on countries.

“A thrust was made to keep the population at bay to catch up,” she said.

The fertility decline could accelerate an increase in the economic composition due to more working age people and fewer dependent young children and elderly pe