Diana Mahabir-Wyatt
It is impossible to ignore the effects of war on finance and the economy in Trinidad and Tobago, now that we are post-budget and amid two major international wars: the one in the Middle East, ancestral geographic home of many in TT, and the Middle European one, source of wheat products necessary to many TT businesses.
I became aware this past week that, from an industrial-relations perspective, wise stakeholders - both employers and trade unions - are drawing up contingency plans for the near future. Just in case.
War changes everything. Even with no direct involvement by our military, there will be effects on procurement for every business, owing to the high levels of imports we live with, partners with whom we trade or have financial transactions, anything involving the transport of goods, and the people we bring in as consultants or advisers.
I have lost track of the times TT has called on Israel for technical advice on agriculture, digitalisation, town planning and medical technology.
But that was before. This is now.
Change comes in on little cat feet, silently, to quote Carl Sandburg, while we are not looking, like the proverbial frogs in the pot of water on a stove.
During war, oil prices tend to go up (one of the unstated reasons for war). That hits TT businesses both ways, as we now face a higher import price in order to produce, as well as when we sell products.
In one way or another, as a country with international trade links and oil, we will feel it.
Last week, going over historical documents reflecting on the effects on TT businesses during the world wars, I noticed a statistical connection.
During and after the last world war some thousand European Jewish families fled as refugees to Jamaica and TT. Israel and Palestine didn't exist then. At the same time, people of the Islamic faith from the war-torn Middle East area fled to the Caribbean, where they could (and still do) live in peace.
If the current wars affecting our lives continue, as all the combatants vow they will, history shows us that people will change, systems change, and in all countries industrial relationships and the laws that control industrial relations will inevitably change.
The internationalisation of trade on which our economy as well as recent procurement legislation has been based will almost certainly be affected because of the blockage of transport venues. The procurement of goods and services faced by TT during both major periods of crisis is well known.
There is no real reason to suppose that similar blockages will not begin to affect commercial and manufacturing, hospitality and medical businesses as the months go by here. Which means that everyone employed will be affected.
Employees' expectations are high and rise with each announcement of someone else's wage increase.
Under the guise of protection of the population, as fear is cultivated and job losses threaten, history tells us that government ruled by decree tends to follow, step by step, to control
