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Malawi: Democracy battle won, real war is the conomy

guest column :Admire Maparadza Dube Malawi swore in new President Lazarus Chakwera on the June 28, 2020 after a gruelling re-run of a hotly disputed election to unseat former leader Peter Mutharika. Hundreds of people gathered at the Bingu International Convention Centre in Lilongwe to witness Chakwera take oath. He made a lot of sweeping promises, as any incoming president is wont to, but what stuck with me was his pledge to develop the country beyond the expectations of Malawians. He implored Malawians to “wake up from their dream to live the dream.” Now, as much a battle of attrition the political victory was, it’s in the economic war where the incoming president will meet his biggest challenge, and will ultimately be judged. Located in southern Africa, Malawi is landlocked, sharing its borders with Mozambique, Zambia and Tanzania. According to the 2018 Census, the country has an estimated population of 17,5 million, which is expected to double by 2038. The country ranks among the world's least developed countries. Its economic performance has historically been constrained by policy inconsistency, macroeconomic instability, poor infrastructure, rampant corruption and poor health and education outcomes that limit labour productivity. The economy is predominately based on rain-fed agriculture with about 80% of the population living in rural areas and more than half of the population living below the poverty line, dependent primarily on subsistence dwelling. The agriculture segment accounts for about a third of GDP (gross domestic product) and 80% of export revenues. Tobacco’s performance is indispensable in the sector for short-term growth as it accounts for more than 50% of exports. Malawi seriously needs to diversify away from tobacco to other cash crops and indeed beyond agriculture itself because, in the mean time, this leaves the entire economy susceptible to weather shocks as irrigation is not extensive. So dire are the Malawi macro-economic fundamentals that the 2018/19 national approved budget of a mere US$1,997 billion had to be revised downwards to US$1,962 billion as authorities realised revenue targets were going to be missed. Unfathomable as it sounds, even this sub US$2 billion national budget is donor funded through grants by Western headquartered agencies to the tune of consistently above 50% each preceding year. Substantial inflows of this economic assistance are from the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and individual donor nations. Donors actually halted direct budget support from 2013 to 2016 because of concerns about corruption and fiscal carelessness causing untold economic damage which culminated in the political unrest and ultimate ousting of former president Mutharika, despite the World Bank resuming budget support in May 2017. This means the landlocked nation contributes less than half towards fiscal revenue to fund its own needs and at one point the grants were as high as three quarters of the budget! An unsustainable situation for any entity let alone a country. This is the ro

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