Turkey's dramatic military intervention into Libya's civil-cum-proxy war on the side of the Tripoli government has changed the narrative from 'Haftar tightening the noose around Tripoli' to his 'entire Western operation being in disarray,' as one analyst puts it.
Megerisi characterises the Libyan conflict as a 'proxy' war, as does Stephanie Turco Williams, Acting Special Representative of the secretary-general and Head of the United Nations Support Mission in Libya.
Turkey's intervention, backed by Syrian mercenaries, tilted the balance of power against Haftar
Haftar was initially stopped outside Tripoli mainly by militias loyal to al-Sarraj and a long stalemate persisted throughout 2019.
Megerisi says Haftar's next move may be to secure control of Libya's oilfields to justify his military adventurism to his domestic and external backers.
He also thinks it's unlikely the AU will succeed in getting a joint AU-UN special Libyan envoy appointed to replace the Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General to Libya, Ghassane Salamé, who resigned in March in despair.
