A version of this story first appeared in CNN Business' Before the Bell newsletter. Not a subscriber? You can sign up right here.
Longer than expected may be the answer, if new data and forecasts from the travel and energy sectors are any indication. (For the latest on America's recovery, check out our dashboard here.)
First, energy: The International Energy Agency on Thursday cut its forecast for global oil demand in 2020 by 140,000 barrels per day.
The agency said its first downgrade in several months reflected the stalling recovery in travel, the high number of coronavirus cases and weakness in the aviation sector. The demand outlook for next year was also slashed.
Consumption is bouncing back in China, the agency said, but transportation activity is falling in places where the virus is continuing to spread quickly such as India and Latin America.
"The virus continues to impact road transport as people avoid non-essential trips and working from home remains the norm in much of the West," the agency said in its monthly report.
When will things get back to normal? Not anytime soon, if ever.
"By December 2021, global oil consumption will still be 2% lower than at the end of 2019," said the IEA.
Major producers see the same trend. On Wednesday, OPEC said it expects global oil demand growth to decline by 9.1 million barrels per day in 2020, or 100,000 barrels per day more than its previous forecast.
Now, travel: Shares in TUI dropped as much as 6.3% on Thursday after the German tourism company said it lost €1.1 billion ($1.3 billion) in the three months ending in June.
The world's biggest tour operator has obtained a second credit line from the German government, a step needed to "secure our liquidity in the event of further long-lasting travel restrictions and disruptions through COVID-19."
The company operates cruise ships, five airlines and more than 400 hotels, employing about 70,000 people worldwide.
TUI (TUIFF) already announced plans to scale back its global operations and cut up to 8,000 jobs. It's reducing the size of its German fleet, restructuring its business in France and closing 166 travel agencies in the United Kingdom.
While some travel activities have resumed, the company said it still cannot forecast its financial performance for this year due to the pandemic.
More bad news: With coronavirus cases on the rise again in Europe, and restrictions on travel being reimposed, the situation may get even worse. The International Air Transport Association warned Thursday that 7 million jobs in Europe supported by aviation are now at risk — that's a million more than it expected in June.
"It is desperately worrying to see a further decline in prospects for air travel this year, and the knock-on impact for employment and prosperity," said Rafael Schvartzman, IATA's regional vice president for Europe.
Alibaba could be the next target in the tech war
The United States has taken aim at some of China's biggest tech champions, from Huawei and ByteDance's TikTok to Tencent's WeChat. Alibaba, one of the wo
