Worldwide smartphone shipments are expected to fall by 11.9% this year — their biggest annual drop ever — indicating things are going to get worse for the industry before they get better.

In its latest market forecast, research firm IDC anticipates shipments of 1.2 billion in 2020, down from just under 1.4 billion last year.

Nationwide lockdowns and rising unemployment have reduced consumer confidence and reprioritised spending towards essential goods

“What started as a supply-side crisis has evolved into a global demand-side problem,” Sangeetika Srivastava, an analyst for IDC’s Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers said in a statement.

“Nationwide lockdowns and rising unemployment have reduced consumer confidence and reprioritised spending towards essential goods, directly impacting the uptake of smartphones in the short term.”

“On the brighter side, 5G is expected to be a catalyst throughout the forecast period, which will play a vital role in worldwide smartphone market recovery in 2021,” said Srivastava.