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What's happening: Talks in Brussels over a €750 billion ($859 billion) relief package stretched into their fourth day on Monday as frugal Northern countries stood firm on limiting the proportion of grants in the mix, as opposed to loans. The conditions that would be attached to funding also remain a point of contention.
But a compromise could be close. Before the EU summit was adjourned after all-night talks Sunday, a deal was proposed that would reduce the proportion of grants to about 50% of the fund, or €375 billion ($429 billion).
"We are not there yet," Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said. "Things could still fall apart but it looks a bit more hopeful than at times last night."
That's good news considering the euro is rising on the assumption that a deal will be reached. The currency climbed to $1.15 on Monday, its highest level against the dollar since early 2019.
That's not all: Stimulus negotiations will kick off in Washington "in earnest" on Monday, according to White House chief of staff Mark Meadows. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy are due to meet with President Donald Trump and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to "fine tune" the proposal, Meadows said.
Much remains up in the air — and it's not just liberal and conservative lawmakers who are facing off. The White House and Senate Republicans are at odds over the amount of funding that should be given to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, a source with direct knowledge of the matter told CNN over the weekend.
The stakes: An explosion of coronavirus cases in Sun Belt states has threatened the fragile US recovery, raising pressure on lawmakers to agree on the next round of assistance quickly. Goldman Sachs said in a note to clients that consumer spending could fall back to June levels if other states with growing case loads follow California in reimposing strict social distancing.
The bank said that if the recovery stalls or reverses this quarter, growth would likely be stronger than expected in 2021. But it could also result in long-term scarring of the economy.
"This could come in the form of permanent business closures or — with the labor market recovery now stalling, led by setbacks in the Sun Belt — lost opportunities to quickly rehire workers still on temporary layoff," strategists led by chief economist Jan Hatzius wrote in Sunday's note.
On the radar: As the job market sags, lawmakers need to decide whether to extend a $600 per week federal lifeline for millions of unemployed Americans.
Though the supplementary relief technically doesn't expire until July 31, this will be the last week for which benefits are paid. If a consensus isn't reached, more than 25 million people will be thousands of dollars poorer each month, my CNN Business colleague Tami Luhby reports.
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