A few weeks ago I wrote in this column that not even a megalomaniac would start a full-scale war in Europe.
It looks, however, as if a certain megalomaniac would. And particularly so if his name could be a shortened version of Rasputin, translated as “mad monk.” Not that Putin and Rasputin have much in common except for their delusions of grandeur: the older mad monk cosied up so close to Czarina Alexandra that he was widely regarded as her trusted adviser, and he came to a very sticky end, something which, although certain, is yet to befall the younger delusionist.
The other big difference between them is that Rasputin accurately foretold the calamitous end to WWI and also the violent end that awaited Czar Nicholas II and the Russian royal family. The present mad monk, however, is blind to the disastrous fallout that will follow his sick escapade in Ukraine. He also did not live in Imperial Russia, while Rasputin was in its bosom, but it seems that Putin is pining to put the beloved empire back together.
Putin’s mental state is being questioned and the moniker “mad monk” might be perfectly apt. There is speculation that Putin spent the last two years in such solitude, avoiding covid, that he has compromised his ability to think rationally. It is possible; his rantings about Ukraine not being a proper country and occurring by accident borders on the insane. But it only partly explains the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and his other dirty gambit, the Russo-Georgian war.
Parts of Georgia have been under Russian command since 2008, when Putin accused it of "aggression against South Ossetia” and launched a full-scale land, air and sea invasion which he described as a “peace enforcement” operation. It is not too dissimilar from the justification (one of them) he gives for invading Ukraine in 2022. Putin has been fomenting and arming dissident ethnic groups and strong-arm autocrats in some key surrounding countries that were once Soviet republics, with the intention of destabilising them and bringing them back into the Russian fold.
Everything that is playing out in Ukraine has taken place before, but the West is paying more attention this time. Putin did not catch a vaps and decide to bring Ukraine to heel; the writing was on the wall for quite a while and the trajectory was clear to see for anyone caring to read Putin’s actions.
In 2021, the European Court of Human Rights ruled that Russia maintained “direct control” over the separatist regions of Georgia and was responsible for grave human-rights violations taking place there – including ethnic cleansing that led to a massive displacement of people.
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Things have only got worse for Russia. Now, the International Criminal Court is launching an investigation into possible war crimes in Ukraine, but I bet that more is still to come after the Kremlin subjugates its mineral-rich neighbour of 40 million citizens. Of course, Putin’s unhingedness might lead to the use of nuclear weapons,
