The TT Meteorological Service is predicting the upcoming rainy season will be volatile and erratic and, in future, the country needs to prepare for hotter days.

This was said as the Met Office hosted its sixteenth National Climate Outlook Forum at the TT Civil Aviation Centre, Caroni North Bank Road, Piarco on Tuesday.

The major focus was climate change and the effect it has on TT.

Meteorologist Ean Wallace said the upcoming rainy season would be “wetter than normal.”

Wallace explained the three major climate factors that drive the rainy season – El Nino/La Nina, sea surface temperatures east of TT and Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) (north/south seas surface temperature gradient.)

He said, “With above average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic, this can be a major factor in the strength of tropical waves and the fluctuation of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ).

“When we see a warmer than average tropical Atlantic relative to the southern tropical Atlantic, the opposite is also true.

“From June to September, the AMM is positive. This means we will continue to see warm conditions that we have seen over the past few months and there will be record warm conditions in the Atlantic Ocean, and when the AMM is in a positive mode, the ITCZ is displaced throughout our area more frequently and becomes more volatile.”

Wallace said the ITCZ provides TT with most of its rainfall.

On April 4, Colorado State University released its first seasonal forecast for the North Atlantic Hurricane Basin (TT and the Caribbean hurricane basin), predicting 23 main storms, 11 hurricanes and five major hurricanes.

Similar statistics have also been released by AccuWeather Co, as it predicted 20-25 storms, eight-12 hurricanes and four-seven major hurricanes.

In 2023, AccuWeather predicted 19 storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

On Tuesday, Wallace said, “The commonality between all these forecasts is that they are all above average for tropical activities in the entire region.”

In the area of interest for TT, four storms have formed per year from 1991-2020.

This year, the Met office predicts six storms, three-eight storms likely to form in the area and three hurricanes, with one-four hurricanes likely to form.

Wallace said, “The activity we will see this year will likely be in line with that of 2023.

“This is going to be a volatile and erratic Atlantic hurricane season.”

In its presentation, the Met Office said heightened tropical storm activity is expected from August-October but will most happen in August and September.

Meteorologist and acting climatologist Kaidar Kissoon produced the presentation.

He said, “A season only needs one tropical storm or hurricane to cause devastation in TT, for it to be an active season. Citizens should increase preparation.”

However, with climate change and its effects, the Met Office said, TT will see a wetter than usual start to the rainy season.

It said, “The first half of the wet season, June-July-August, is likely to be near normal or