WHILE the world awoke last Thursday to the shocking news of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on Wednesday night, the event did not surprise Dr Anthony Gonzales, former head of the Institute of International Relations at UWI, St Augustine, although he thought it ill-advised, he told Newsday on Thursday.

"I think President Putin has been talking about this for 20 years. He wasn't happy with how the Soviet Union broke up. He always had ideas.

"As NATO expanded he felt Russia was besieged, surrounded by all these countries that could put weapons. But that did not justify what he did."

Gonzales said Putin, a former KGB agent, had felt Russia got the worst part of the deal upon the USSR's disintegration and now feels a sense of that history. Despite the collapse of the USSR or "Russian Empire," Gonzales reckoned Putin believes Ukraine still belongs to Russia.

[caption id="attachment_942015" align="alignnone" width="1024"] An armoured personnel carrier burns, and damaged light utility vehicles stand abandoned after fighting in Kharkiv, Ukraine on Sunday. (AP) -[/caption]

"He felt Lenin had made a mistake in 1917 in recognising nationalists in Ukraine, in accepting Ukraine as a republic within the USSR. Putin thinks they are all Slavic people."

He said even former Russian president Boris Yeltsin, a reformist, would never have expected Ukraine to separate, but stay with Russia.

Gonzales reckoned Putin was now trying to rebuild that union.

"I think it is a lost cause. Ukrainians will fight until they get back some form of independence, but what kind of country that would be..." Gonzales wondered whether Russia intended to occupy Ukraine and, if so, whether it would do so by installing a pro-Russia government or by splitting the country. "Ukraine will make it very difficult for them to occupy the place."

He said fighting could spread to nearby countries like Poland. "It could be very nasty, very rough. It has implications down the road.

"This invasion has a whole lot of ramifications, such as on the price of oil and wheat."

He said it will intensify Russia-West tensions.

Gonzales thought the crisis could have implications for Venezuela, such as reinforcing the Americans' determination that no Russian weapons must be placed in the New World, amid talks of any coming conflict between the US and Russia.

So, why now for Putin's invasion?

"Since 2014 when Ukraine threw out the pro-Russian government and wanted to go with the West in the Purple Revolution, Russia was very annoyed and took Crimea and the Donbass (the latter presumably via separatist proxies)."

Gonzales said since then, Putin has been looking to see how he could make a move to restore a Russian presence in Ukraine, amid the contrasting impacts of former US president Donald Trump and current President Joe Biden.

"He felt Trump would destroy NATO and so he would have nothing to do. But Biden decided to strengthen NATO. Putin saw that his chance to get back Ukraine was lost and now the only way to do so was by invading.

"NATO is stronger