KG ALI
WE BELONG to a nation that has maintained a common thread in its communication since March 2020 that we follow the science. If in fact we are guided by science in navigating our country through this covid19 pandemic, how can we be in a position where our schools remain predominantly closed for over 600 days?
While school closure was a prudent step taken to protect society in March 2020, some 21 months ago, based on the level of uncertainty on how covid19 would impact the health and well-being of our people, this is no longer the case. The science clearly shows that the lowest risk of transmission is in children and that they are not major vectors of covid19, even in intergenerational homes that include grandparents.
If we are shaping our decisions and policies around the science, then how can every area of business be reopened but still we justify schools remaining closed. Is it that our children's pockets are not deep enough to be heard, their lack of lobbying force or taxpaying makes their voices dissipate, or is it that our leaders do not have the foresight to see the direct financial impact of sustained school closures in the future?
In September 2020, the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) was the first to identify and simulate the economic costs of pre-primary school closures due to the covid19 pandemic. Across 140 countries of 6.4 billion people combined, the IDB used a simple model to show the losses in future income for prolonged closure of education centres.
The results varied based on pre-pandemic enrollment which was directly tied to socio-economic circumstances of each country. As expected, high-income countries were found to have pre-pandemic enrolment of approximately 93 per cent, whereas low-income nations' pre-enrolment was as low as 14.9 per cent. Using this very simplified model, the future average loss of only 12 months of school closure in the Caribbean is estimated at an astounding 6.3 per cent decline in future GDP.
This model excluded benefits that were difficult to monetise such as family and health benefits, or a reduction in the cost of crime in society, and as such the IDB's simulated calculation is quite conservative. When we extrapolate that calculation to cover the now 22-month learning loss in TT, how can we justify a double-digit decline in future GDP when, according to the World Bank, the Government allocated a mere 3.6 per cent of GDP to education in 2019?
Access to quality early childhood education is essential for children's intellectual development, later academic progress and ultimately lifetime earnings. In children under the age of five years, the brain is much more sensitive and flexible to learning experiences and stimulation of the environment.
According to a study conducted by BMJ Global Health in 2019 about early childhood development, this early plasticity and what is done or not done during early childhood can have long-term influences on the formation of human capital, health and behaviour. In fact, the training and accumulation of
