President of the Confederation of Regional Business Chambers Vivek Charran is unsure how many long-term goals can be accomplished in the fiscal year 2023-2024.

In an interview with Business Day on Monday, Charran was asked about his expectations for the upcoming budget - a date is yet to be announced.

He said, 'I believe a lot of small things can, incrementally and cumulatively, over time, make a difference, and I believe one of the most important things we have to deal with is inflation internally.'

He explained that despite the Central Statistical Office (CSO) report indicating a three per cent growth in TT's GDP between the last quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023, and the Central Bank report that the inflation rate has decreased from 6.8 per cent to 6.4 per cent, the average man is not reaping the benefits of these decreases.

'So what can we do? Everything, in a sense, stems from inflationary pressures in the economy.'

Charran said only when inflation goes down in a 'meaningful way' will commercial activity pick up, employment rates and incomes increase and retail prices decrease.

Referring to the monthly Central Bank report, he said, 'I have not really seen an indication of what the employment rate is. Is it constant, increasing or falling? Or what sectors is the rate really increasing in?'

As for the CSO report, Charran noted that there was a 1.5 per cent growth between 2021 and 2022, with the non-energy sector taking the lead in both areas. Though he was not sure how large or prominent these businesses are, he said it is apparent that the performance of the energy sector is falling.

Charran said as the energy sector is diminishing, this will lead to cutbacks, leaving many unemployed unskilled labourers, who account for a lot of the population. He presumes the widespread of small to medium enterprises, however, will increase employment rates.

'The idea is that if we see things like a rise in commercial activity and a fall in inflation and so on, then we would hope we can see some growth with small, micro and medium businesses, which would also help.'

Can you tax an economy into recovery?

Charran said taxes need to be reviewed, especially with the economic state of TT: he said taxes cannot lead to recovery nor an increase in commercial activity.

'In a sense, taxation acts as a barrier to new entrance into industries. So the idea is, let us look at VAT (value added tax).

"It is not an efficient tax. The government is finding it very difficult to deal with the VAT repayments - and we can understand that. Even though they have given a commitment to pay the VAT returns, the reality is that this may actually not occur before the new budget is read.'

He said the majority of the refunds stem from the energy sector, and after those are paid, then manufacturers and other large businesses would be looked at.

'The reality is that the government is going to keep accruing a debt when it comes to VAT repayments.'

Charran added that another debt the government is ac