[caption id="attachment_942723" align="alignnone" width="1024"] -[/caption]
Many of the challenges we face today overlap. As global temperatures increase even by fractions of a degree – say, from today 1.1C to 1.5C by 2030, risks will increase, and important species and ecosystems are very likely to disappear already. Suppose we fail in accelerating mitigation and adaptation. In that case, we will stay on the current path, and the temperature will rise by about 3C above pre-industrial levels. In such a case, impacts are expected to be multiple times – ten times – worse.
“Science tells us that will require the world to cut emissions by 45 per cent by 2030 and achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. But according to current commitments, global emissions are set to increase almost 14 per cent over the current decade. That spells catastrophe. It will destroy any chance of keeping 1.5 alive.”
This is from the remarks of the UN secretary general, António Guterres, at the press conference on the launch of the report by Working Group II, on Impacts. Adaptation and Vulnerability, as part of the Sixth Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on February 28.
Mr Guterres describes the newly released IPCC report as an “atlas of human suffering.” Why? Because according to the report, half of the world’s population already live in hotspots of high vulnerability to climate change. The well-being of these people is already being severely affected. The report lays out how this will increase under various temperature scenarios and regions of the world – including the Caribbean.
Mr Guterres continues: “The facts are undeniable. This abdication of leadership is criminal. The world’s biggest polluters are guilty of arson of our only home.”
Scientists from 67 countries, 270 authors (amongst whom five are from UWI), have reviewed more than 34,000 scientific papers, resolved 62,418 review comments from experts and governments, and then signed off collectively on the findings that were released on Monday. In August 2021, the science panel published the first part of the series, which will constitute the Sixth Assessment Report. That report was on the latest climate science and projections for future warming, branded “code red” by Guterres.
[caption id="attachment_942725" align="alignnone" width="1024"] A wildfire consumes a forest near Ituzaingo in the Corrientes province of Argentina, February 19, 2022. - AP PHOTO[/caption]
At first sight, the size of the report is as overwhelming as the findings! Over 3,675 pages, there is a clear and stark message: climate change is already affecting human well-being and the health of the planet at 1.1C warming – and this will escalate by a lot to when we reach 1.5C and then a lot more when we reach 3C, which is our current trajectory. The time window available to secure a liveable future is brief and closing rapidly.
Small island states
Currently available evidence enables scientists to detect increases in temperature with very high confidence levels, a
