Osterholm, who has been one of the national “go to” experts on COVID-19, said he expects the virus to continue to infect Americans until either a vaccine is developed and widely available or until more than 60% of Americans have been exposed.
“So when you think about the pain, the suffering, the death, the economic disruption we’ve had to date for a 5-to-15% [infection rate],” said Osterholm, “and what it’s going to take to get to 60-to-70% percent, you understand why I say we’re just in the second inning,” he said.
Kashkari predicted that the economic recovery will take longer and the pain will be felt much deeper than even he predicted just months ago.
April’s unemployment rate was officially 14.7%, but Kashkari views the numbers as an undercount, because millions of workers who were laid off were not able to look for a new job—in many cases there were no new jobs available.
Kashkari warned that when the billions of dollars given to small businesses as part of the Paycheck Protection Program runs out, there could be a wave of bankruptcies that depletes U.S. productive capacity and slows recovery even further.
