Iron fist
Nkurunziza had been president of Burundi for the past 15 years.
The transition
We could anchor Burundi's political transition to Nkurunziza's decision not to seek a fourth term of office, which he first signalled in 2015 and reiterated in 2018.
It is highly unlikely, therefore, that transition in Burundi will dramatically deviate from the existing status quo, given the existence of entrenched interests, particularly the military and ruling party elites.
In Burundi's case this means rallying around Nkurunziza's chosen successor, Ndayishimiye.
Burundi blamed the failed coup attempt against Nkurunziza in 2015 on its northern neighbour, Rwanda.
