Former Vice President Joe Biden's lead over Trump -- he had an 11-point edge in the CNN poll of Polls as of Friday -- combined with impressive down-ballot Democratic fundraising has helped the party expand their playing field into red states and districts.
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales, a CNN contributor, has shifted the Kansas and Colorado Senate races and 20 House races in Democrats' favor. Even the district once held by White House chief of staff Mark Meadows could now be in play. Just three House races moved toward Republicans.
Interactive: 2020 House race ratings
Inside Elections has also revised upward its projections for how many seats Democrats are likely to pick up in each chamber. In the Senate, it's now a net gain of four to six seats, which puts Democrats well on the path to the majority. They need a net gain of four seats to flip the Senate, or three if they win the White House since the vice president breaks ties in the Senate.
The more noteworthy of the two Senate race ratings changes is in Kansas, which moves from Lean Republican to Tilt Republican. Sen. Pat Roberts is retiring, leaving an open seat in a state Trump carried by nearly 21 points. Democrats haven't won a Senate seat here since 1932, so this theoretically should have been an easy one for Republicans to hold.
But GOP Rep. Roger Marshall, whose primary victory over Kris Kobach relieved Republicans, isn't providing much relief in the final stretch of the campaign. Instead, national GOP groups are having to spend on his behalf, while Democrat Barbara Bollier -- a former Republican -- raised nearly $13 million in the third quarter. She began October with about $7.6 million compared to Marshall's $1.7 million.
Colorado's shift from Tilt Democratic to Lean Democratic is more predictable. GOP Sen. Cory Gardner is running for a second term in a state Trump lost by five points in 2016 and could lose by an even wider margin in November. The fight over the Supreme Court vacancy has only further nationalized the race, reminding voters that despite what Gardner says about loving the environment and being bipartisan, he's still a Republican senator.
In the House, Inside Elections now projects Democrats to pick up a net of 10 to 20 seats. That's an extraordinary position for Democrats to be in given that they're defending their 2018 historic midterm gains, many of them in districts Trump carried four years ago. But the President is proving to be a drag on down-ballot Republicans even in districts he won, while he's helping Democrats go on offense in red districts that were not part of the battlefield at the beginning of the cycle. Republicans would need a net gain of 17 seats for a majority, which appears very, very unlikely.
Suburban seats moving toward Democrats
In a world in which House races have become even more nationalized, Trump's unpopularity is bad news for congressional Republicans -- even long-time incumbents in traditionally red districts.
Arizona's 6th District, for example, voted for Trump in 2016, but it has one of th
